Ingo Winzer
When will home prices realign with income levels? Since 2021, home prices are sharply higher in every market across the country—so much higher that they’ll have to come back down. Home prices can be out of line with local incomes for a while, as they are right now, but not ...
A reckoning in home prices is coming. Although the home price bubble is still percolating in some places, with the average sales price up 5% in the third quarter compared to last year (up 11% in Miami!), the slowing U.S. economy almost ensures there will be a reckoning in 2024 ...
Will prices level off this year? Data from the FHFA show that the average home price in the second quarter was up 5% from last year. Prices were up 8% in the first quarter and 12% in the fourth quarter of 2022, so there's a definite slowing trend, and we ...
Price and population peaks in various markets coincided. Home prices go with the flow. The flow of population, that is. We could also call this Twin Peaks because the height of the recent home price boom seems to be a twin of the height of population growth. The boom sprang ...
Dig deeper than the published reports about job growth before you decide to invest in a market. Of the many jobs that were lost during the pandemic, some quickly returned when lockdowns ended, some turned out to be gone for good, and some are still finding their way back. That ...
Since the peak of the housing boom back in June and July 2022, average home prices are down 5%. In the Mountain States and Pacific coast, they are down more than 7%. In Florida, on the other hand, they’ve dropped just 2%. The deflation of the home price boom will ...
With home prices much too high and a recession looming, potential homebuyers in many markets will be sitting on the sidelines for a while as sellers try to cash out. Unless the rules of economics have been suspended (as they were during the pandemic), home prices will come down. In ...
It’s clear from home price data for the third quarter that the boom is over, killed by higher mortgage rates—but also because prices can only go so high before buyers balk. Monthly data indicate that the peak was actually reached in May-June, with prices already down a few percent since ...
With the U.S. population stagnating (for the first time ever, it didn’t grow last year), real estate investment is becoming a zero-sum game. For each good market, there’s a bad market. You can’t just buy property anywhere and expect success. That’s always been true to some extent, but the prospect ...
Sanctions against Russia because of the war in Ukraine will boost energy costs around the world for years—and probably inflation and interest rates as well. I’m pretty much convinced this will weaken a U.S. economy that may have regained most of the pre-pandemic jobs but has not boosted income for ...
Will Surges in Home Prices Last?
The surge in home prices that’s affected almost every market in the country won’t last forever—it probably has only another year. After that, will higher prices stay higher? In the long run, higher prices are dependent on income, which hasn’t surged anywhere. Or will they crash as they did in ...
The renewed plunge into coronavirus disruptions—this time by the omicron variant—increases the difficulty of separating temporary from longer-term changes to the U.S. economy. Economic disruptions often accelerate trends that had already been brewing under the surface. On-line shopping, remote working and learning, and the reordering of life-work priorities aren’t new ...
During this year, it has been difficult to figure out which local markets have the best potential for real estate investors. The pandemic not only cut growth in all markets but also changed how the economy is structured. Some sectors, like healthcare, government, and restaurants, seem to have lost jobs ...
Our regular ways of comparing real estate markets are pretty much out the window because EVERY market is now beset with heavy job losses, and jobs drive demand for real estate. Instead of jobs as they are now, let's think about jobs a couple of years down the road. Which ...
Perspectives: Economic and Recession Comparisons
Just a few weeks ago we were wondering if a recession would happen. Now that it's unfolding before our eyes it's easy to imagine 2008 all over again, a lengthy recession with a long slide in real estate values. It could happen. The problem this time is a virus we ...
2020 will be a year of caution for investors. Home prices have peaked in some markets and could be headed downward; the economy continues to slow; and trade wars or real wars could upset all economic plans. In this environment it pays to look at the low risk options: markets ...
Top Ten Markets for Long-Term Investing
Changes in home prices give us the best idea of what's going on in a local real estate market. But you can’t just take price increases at face value and think that bigger is better. Home prices can be increasing at a good clip for three main reasons, two of ...
Markets that Will “Double Up” in 2018
Although home prices have been rising briskly in many markets across the country, the prospects for investors in these markets can be quite different from market to market. This is especially true for investors in rental properties who need a longer-term perspective than those rehabbing and reselling. Jobs are the ...
10 Markets: Strong Price Gains & Possible Futures
Although home prices have been rising briskly in many markets across the country, the prospects for investors in these markets can be quite different from market to market. This is especially true for investors in rental properties who need a longer-term perspective than those rehabbing and reselling. Sure, rising home ...
Top 20 Markets for Defensive Investing
With the national economy slowing down (yes, it is), and the Fed promising to raise interest rates, investors may want to take a step back from their current investing strategy and consider their options. Use this information when researching markets. High-Side Markets On the one hand, there are markets where ...
Top 10 RE Markets for Business & Healthcare
Despite political wrangling, healthcare will be a growing portion of the U.S. economy as Americans get sicker and older and as science spits out new drugs and treatment options. A growing local healthcare industry not only provides jobs directly, but also through the many associated business services it needs in ...
