Danny Johnson
My vote for the Fed on Thursday is liftoff at .25% and see what happens
The financial world is paralyzed, waiting for the Fed Thursday. At the outset, hang on tight to one thing: the U.S. economy is doing so well that if it were not for the rest of the world the Fed would have begun liftoff months or even years ago. We are ...
Hereās how crazy all of this is: I canāt tell if the markets care what the Fed does
I have many friends who hang on every word from rich guys on Wall Street: mutual and hedge fund managers, securities firm economists and pooh-bahs, and just plain rich guys who got rich by playing on the Street. But these sources are either salespeople, or winners who have little to ...
We should all assume the Fed lifts off soon, and I hope in September
Whether markets are resolving some of the uncertainties and frights leading to two weeks of chaos, or merely fatigued, they are settling down. Quiet is good. The U.S. consistently shows more signs of āself-sustainingā growth. In the last seven years a false hope, but apparent now that the Fed can ...
Calm down: Just because we see confusion and panic out there does not mean we have to sign up
Calm down. Think it over, figure it out. Just because we see confusion and panic out there doesnāt mean we have to sign up. The media focus is on the stock market. If for no other reason than that, donāt pay much attention to the stock market. If it goes ...
If we are lucky the Fed will acknowledge “normal” is a lot lower than it used to be
Oh, boy. Here we were, minding our own business, finger-thrumming at desks while waiting for the Fed to begin ānormalizingā next month. Then, China. Cut to the chase and then try to explain it. Stick with Clintonās Law: āItās the economy, stupid.ā Currencies and central bank actions are effects of ...
The question for housing: Why are long-term rates falling?
The Fed is coming. Another reasonable payroll report Friday givesĀ the Fed all the cover (if not justification) necessary. Expectations are so high that it would be odd if the Fed did not lift from zero next month. Even odder, in response to heightened Fed probability, long-term rates fell Friday. Again ...
Long-term rates are going to stay down – which should be a warning to the Fed
Whither long-term interest rates? Everyone building a new home, or thinking of buying anything wants to know. What is the up-side risk, Fed on the warpath? Long-term rates rose in anticipation of the Fed meeting concluding on Wednesday. Markets got the hawkish post-meeting statement they expected, but since mid-morning Thursday ...
Dear Fed: Do you really want to tighten rates here while others are cutting theirs?
We have a large and widening divide between U.S. economic data and the rest of the world, and to spice things up we have no experience with a situation like this -- āweā being the Fed, other central banks, all governments, and certainly analysts. Experienced or not, markets are moving, ...
The Fed is going to pull the pin on the quarter point rate increase
Chair Yellen gave her semi-annual monetary testimony to Congress twice, to the House and Senate separately, and continued her chant: āIf the economy performs as we expect, then we will begin to normalize policy in 2015.ā Threats and threats... and interest rates fell. The disconnect between the bond market, Fedspeak, ...
The Fed chair says interest rates probably – not definitely – will increase this year
What a week. āSilly Seasonā is August, when nothing happens and headlines say āMan Bites Dog.ā Itās come early this year. Here in Boulder a road-rage incident this week concluded with one participant throwing a pecan pie at the otherās car. Markets have been upset by Chinaās stock crash and ...
Groundhog day – jobs up, incomes not and the Fed: Lou Barnes’ analysis
Thursday felt like a remake of Groundhog Day, Bill Murray trapped as a commentator on CNBC over and over for the monthly release of the same employment stats. But there is more in last weekās news than meets the woodchuckās eye. Jobs up (223,000). Incomes not (hourly wages flat in ...
7 wagers on the future for the second half of 2015 for real estate investors
Here at the turn of the year, days getting shorter, time to look ahead -- which I am reluctant to do, unable to predict the future. But we can bracket probabilities, and apply a little history. Seven wagers on the future for 2015 follow below. New economic data as of ...
Lou Barnes’ analysis: The uncertainty list that is driving the economy right now
Long-term rates have stabilized, maybe a bit better than that, the 10-year T-note Friday breaking below 2.31% resistance, but mortgages still above 4.00%. Rates have jumped a half-percent in sixty days and were due for a breather, but all should expect outsize volatility ahead -- true upping and downing. Since ...
Mortgage rate increases may be an overreaction and not a sustained swoop-up
Long-term mortgage rates have run up again, now to levels of last fall: mortgages are close to 4.25%, the 10-year T-note cresting Wednesday just under 2.50%. Friday, 2.36%. Possibly fatal stubbornness, but I think most of this up-lurch is a correction from overreaction last winter, not the threshold of a ...
The jump in interest rates continues up, and with it, deepening economic confusion
Last week I thought the rise in long-termĀ interestĀ rates was overdone and had a chance to reverse. Oops. The jump in rates has continued, and with it deepening confusion. In just six weeks, the 10-year T-note has moved from 1.90% to 2.40% , mortgages from 3.75% close to 4.25%. News media ...
Real estate investing question of the week: Is there a dark storm on the horizon?
Mr. Barnes, Good morning. I am a full-time real estate investor who subscribes to Personal Real Estate Investor Magazine, and I am fortunate enough to read your articles on a regular basis. I have become a fan of your reporting due to your straightforward, no-spin and non-partisan articles. They are ...
Hint: The next interest rate move will be down says Lou Barnes
Another week of quiet waiting for big data end of this week (not tekkies spying, just the monthly jobs report). I am not a betting man, but I do occasionally guess: there are hints that the next interest rate move will be down. First, head-shaking news of humanity. While working ...
What’s really wrong with housing? Mortgage credit, years of a weak job market and slow wage growth
Another week last week of anxious pencil-tapping in quiet markets, and one more holiday-short week ahead this week before events will conspire to move the herd. Long quiet, big move. A ādata-dependentā Fed means more than ordinary waiting for data. If the Fed is waiting, too, then weāre really waiting ...
We appear to be drifting into economic disinflation, Lou Barnes writes this week
After three weeks of startling (and painful) movement, financial markets have staggered to a standstill. The question before the house: Did the market-lurching signify changes in economic trend, or correction of prior events? Stick with correction. Here is the reconstruction: Way back, 18 months ago, U.S. long-term rates were rising ...
Be very careful floating a mortgage rate right now, says Lou Barnes
Interpretations of this weekās events are all over the lot, so before adding to the confusion, a few bare facts with opinion sandwiched between. The U.S. 10-year T-note began 2015 at 2.23% and promptly dropped to 1.65% in February; by mid-March back to 2.23%, then stable near 1.90% for six ...
Fed sending every possible signal of rate hike in June
After a wild six weeks from Christmas forward, the 10-year T-note stone-falling from 2.35% to 1.65% and then rebounding to 2.00%, global anxiety rising... this weekās news is an extended sermon from The Church of Whatās NOT Happeninā Now. Interest rates did not move. Low-fee mortgages stayed just under 4.00%, ...
Downward pressure on mortgage interest rates still strong
Parts of this report will seem like an April Fool. The US 10-year T-note has jumped a quarter-percent in four days, half of the springboard Friday morning on wild news from the job market. Mortgage damage is limited, low-fee deals still just under 4.00%. The first Friday each month brings ...
The Fed seems captured by old rules in old models
First the facts, then the ponderables. Long-term US interest rates fell again Friday, now to a 20-month low. The 10-year T-note broke through the 1.70% prior low to 1.66%, down from 1.85% on Monday and from 2.30% in Christmas week.(Meanwhile, on Wednesday the Fed affirmed its intention to āliftoffā from ...
Mortgages approaching 70-year low and likely to continue lower, housing is flat
A wild story still unfolding, most of it overseas. The result here at home: mortgage rates near 3.75% and the lows of the year -- and the tilt in chart-pattern witch-doctoring to lower yet. Rates will rise only on substantial good news, somewhere. The only domestic economic data of note: ...
Why our mortgage rates continue low and what is really driving them
A policy change by the Swiss National Bank has addled markets and governments worldwide. How to explain that your lower mortgage rate is courtesy of the Gnomes of Zurich? The 10-year T-note has bottomed at 1.72%, down more than a half-percent since Christmas, but has decoupled from mortgages which stopped ...
