Danny Johnson
Advice for investors: 5 things that are different from previous business cycles
Okay, make sense of this: the US economy in a strengthening recovery, the Fed is in hold-me-back mode, jobs-jobs-jobs everywhere... and long-term interest rates have dropped as they would in a depression. Right. Begin by stripping away three sources of confusion: First the confetti cloud from Wall Street āanalysts.ā Assume ...
Lou Barnes’ 2015 outlook: Housing will stay thin, dependent on jobs and income
Each look outward into a new year in this space begins with Peter Druckerās dictum: āNobody can predict the future. The idea is to have a firm grasp of the present.ā 2015 is the least predictable year ahead in my memory. Humility whispers: unpredictability may mean anything from exciting to ...
Lou Barnes: What is the Fed up to?
Markets are already quieting in front of two holiday-shortened weeks, after two calm-shattering ones. The five things unresolved, still on the table beside the turkey: what is the Fed up to? What is the support for an apparently accelerating US recovery? Does crashing oil help or hurt? Same for Chinaās ...
Lou Barnes’ analysis for investors: The Fed’s tightening may look like no other
Markets are moving in dramatic fashion, obscuring the improving US economy. Or vice-versa. Our 10-year T-note fell to 2.08% Friday, mortgages attempting to crack 4.00%; the German 10-year is a new all-time low 0.627% joined by Japanās 0.398%. Stock markets are truly volatile, up-down-up-down. Oil has broken $60 and may ...
A surge in jobs, but will the Fed make a move?
Surprise, surprise: November jobs data released Friday were off-the-chart strong. So strong that markets are struggling to evaluate and price the news, for the moment skeptical of the report, hence little changed. Shoot, thereās more reaction among politicians and economists. The White House is preening alongside anyone who has had ...
Lou Barnes: Mortgage rates moving down is real trend
Long-term interest rates have broken a narrow, month-long range... down. The lowest-fee mortgages are trying to cross below 4.00%, and the 10-year T-note, the driver of the show, now 2.23%. This is a big move, reinforcing a downtrend. However, this is also a holiday week, markets thin, and November jobs ...
Lou Barnes’ economic analysis of what the Fed minutes really say for investors
Mortgage rates have been stable near 4.00%, held there by the 10-year T-note moving hardly at all in the last month, 2.31%-2.38% since Halloween. Such stability is most unusual, best understood as a market gathering tension for a significant snap. The dominant news is central banks trying to cope with ...
Lou Barnes’ real estate investor advice and view on deflation
Quiet on the surface, anything but quiet underneath. And āover thereā... oh my. The most important single datum for the investor: the Treasury last week sold at auction $70 billion in new long-term bonds for the first time in six years without the Fed as a QE buyer. The auction ...
Lou Barnes’ economic analysis for real estate investors
Last weekās top economic stories are two processes underway which no one understands. In lesser matters, mortgage and long-term rates remained steady. The election will alter discussions in Congress, but danged if I can find an economic event. The first unknown: how long can hiring continue and layoffs fall before ...
Lou Barnes’ weekly economic advice blog for real estate investors
Mortgage and long-term rates are still near their lows -- reassuring, considering everything else has lost its marbles. Or perhaps bonds are doing well because everything else is nuts... a fair proposition to which weāll return. Aged about 12 I got to see the Ringling Brothers and Barnum & Bailey ...
Lou Barnes’ economic advice to real estate investors: Mortgages easier now?
Financial markets have stopped their hysterics for now, so letās get some other things straight. Things about mortgages and other credit. Simple things. FDRās first fireside chat in 1933 was devoted to simple explanations of banking. The next day Will Rogers said the presidentās words were so simple that, āEven ...
Lou Barnes’ weekly economic advice for real estate investors
Wow. What was that all about? For one thing, not the U.S. economy. Another thing not about: mortgage rates, just about back where they were before the stock market circus. Take it one piece at a time.... Pay as little attention as possible to the stock market. It enjoyed a ...
Lou Barnes’ weekly economic advice for real estate investors
The financial world is back on a familiar precipice: a giant global-regional economy is on a cusp, all waiting to see if its government will intervene. This time it aināt us -- itās Europe, again -- the shockwaves for the moment beneficial to the U.S. Mortgages are on their 2014 ...
Lou Barnes’ weekly blog: Deflation and helping real estate investors understand trends
At the end of a strange week last week with lots of fresh data, two things stand out: mortgage and long-term rates stayed low, and market movements were magnified by mass escape from wrong-side trades. On the surface the U.S. data is strong. September payrolls jumped 248,000 jobs, plus another ...
Lou Barnes’ weekly blog: Helping real estate investors understand mortgage and economic trends
Long-term mortgage rates have stabilized, mortgages just under 4.50%, but markets are rattled and itās hard to tell exactly who or what is doing the shaking. The Fed has everybody uneasy, simultaneously saying it may raise the cost of money faster than markets think, but is not in a hurry, ...
The Fed’s “mouse” causes long-term mortgage interest rates to jump
Long-term mortgage rates have risen sharply, mortgages pressing 4.50% as the credit markets jumped on kitchen chairs at the sight of a Fed mouse. EEEK!! The Fed met last week and made only this material change: reduced its forecast for 2015 GDP growth from 3.0-3.2% to 2.6-3.0%. It has of ...
Good news pushes up long-term rates
In the backwards world of bonds and mortgages, in which good news is bad, good news pushed up long-term rates last week. U.S.Ā data may encourage the Fed to accelerate the end of ZIRP (zero interest rate policy), at its meeting this week, possibly, maybe, perhaps, tentatively pre-hinting a rate ...
What effect will the slowing outside world have on our economy?
The gap in economic performance between the U.S. and overseas is widening, holding U.S. rates down. However, the data brings as many questions as answers for the economy. By historical comparison, the twin Institute for Supply Management (ISM) surveys rising in August to 59.0 (manufacturing), and 59.6 (services) have reached ...
3 big things the world economy is wrestling with right now
Here in the U.S. we enjoy the sturdiest economic situation in the world, no matter how creaky it may feel. But, to look outside... eyes wider and wider all the time. It's especially hard to handicap a new load of information as pre-holiday markets never really opened Friday and there ...
Fed may be closer to a rate hike than many assume
The world is a better-looking place than one week ago, and Fed Chair Yellen whispered "bang"Ā but did not shoot. Thus the great barometer, the 10-year U.S. Treasury-note, rose a bit in yield, from 2.33% last week to 2.40% today, mortgages following. At the end of each August the KC ...
The week’s economic overview: Who will rise to lead?
This week has been another lesson in market reactions to news economic and otherwise. And at deeper levels, how not to run railroads. The net result, before whys and wherefores: a new flight to quality, the US 10-year down to 2.32%, it and European bonds in something close to free-fall ...
Still good news for real estate investors and mortgage rates as the 10-year Treasury continues down
Make sense of all of this for real estate investors? May as well start with facts. The U.S. 10-year Treasury broke to 2.36% overnight, itās lowest in more than a year. That is good news for real estate investors watching mortgage rates. German 10s reached an all-time low 1.04%, their ...
The Fed needs to see a lot more growth and income gains before moving
In a world and life filled with uncertainty it is gratifying to watch markets behave exactly as they should. Bonds and mortgages got a bad scare on Wednesday, rates up sharply, but as the full picture revealed itself rates are back where we started. A lot else is not where ...
Long-term rates stabilized but we are still in a down pattern
Long-term rates stabilized this week as events, puzzles, forces, and conflicts scattered all over the world canceled each other. We focus on the yields of long debt because they are the result of real-time voting on economic prospects. Belief in improved growth and its companion inflation push upward on rates ...
A lot of Americans do not see the real jobs picture improving
Long-term rates have again touched the lows of the year, good news for real estate investors. To make sense of that news and a great deal else going by this week, step back -- especially from the awful sights on your screens. Way back. We try to be rational in ...
