Home price growth continues to slow in all cities | Think Realty | A Real Estate of Mind
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Home price growth continues to slow in all cities

Home prices across the U.S. continue to slow this year, according to a release from the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index report.

The home price index covering the entire nation increased 6.2% in the 12 months ended in June, according to the release. In the past the national index was published quarterly but the report noted it will now be released monthly which will help real estate investors with more current information.

Data through June 2014, included in the release by S&P Dow Jones Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices,, show a sustained slowdown in price increases. In addition to the 6.2% national gain, the 10-city and 20-city composites gained 8.1%; all three indices saw their rates slow considerably from last month. Every city saw its year-over-year return worsen.

The National Index, now being published monthly, gained 0.9% in June. The 10- and 20-city composites increased 1.0%. New York led the cities with a return of 1.6% and recorded its largest increase since June 2013. Chicago, Detroit and Las Vegas followed at +1.4%. Las Vegas posted its largest monthly gain since last summer.

“Home price gains continue to ease as they have since last fall,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “For the first time since February 2008, all cities showed lower annual rates than the previous month. Other housing indicators – starts, existing home sales and builders’ sentiment – are positive. Taken together, these point to a more normal housing sector.

“The monthly National Index rose 0.9% in June. While all 20 cities saw higher home prices over the last 12 months, all experienced slower gains. In San Francisco, the pace of price increases halved since late last summer. The Sun Belt cities – Las Vegas, Phoenix, Miami and Tampa – all remain a third or more below their peak prices set almost a decade ago.

“Bargain basement mortgage rates won’t continue forever; recent improvements in the labor markets and comments from Fed chair Janet Yellen and others hint that interest rates could rise as soon as the first quarter of 2015. Rising mortgage rates won’t send housing into a tailspin, but will further dampen price gains.”

As of June 2014, average home prices across the United States are back to their levels posted in the spring of 2005. The National Index was up 0.9% over May 2014 and 6.2% above June 2013.

As of June 2014, average home prices across the United States are back to their autumn 2004 levels. Measured from their June/July 2006 peaks, the peak-to-current decline for both Composites is approximately 17%. The recovery from the March 2012 lows is 27.8% and 28.5% for the 10-City and 20-City Composites.

All 20 cities saw their year-over-year rates weaken in June. For the second consecutive month, San Francisco saw its rate decelerate by almost three percentage points – from 18.4% in April to 12.9% in June. Phoenix showed its smallest year-over-year gain of 6.9% since March 2012. Cleveland showed a marginal increase of 0.8% over the last 12 months while Las Vegas led with a gain of 15.2%.

All cities reported price increases for the third consecutive month; it would have been a fourth had New York not declined 0.4% in March. San Francisco posted its eighth consecutive price increase but showed its smallest gain of 0.3% since February. Five cities – Detroit, Las Vegas, New York, Phoenix and San Diego – posted larger gains in June than in May. Dallas and Denver continue to set new peaks while Detroit remains the only city below its January 2000 value, according to the release from PRNewswire.

More than 27 years of history for these data series are available, and can be accessed in full by going to www.homeprice.spdji.com. Additional content on the housing market may also be found on S&P Dow Jones Indices’ housing blog: www.housingviews.com.

The table below summarizes the results for June 2014. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are revised for the 24 prior months, based on the receipt of additional source data.

June 2014 June/May May/April 1-Year
Metropolitan Area Level Change (%) Change (%) Change (%)
Atlanta 118.50 1.0% 1.2% 8.6%
Boston 176.28 0.5% 1.1% 7.0%
Charlotte 127.95 0.4% 1.4% 3.8%
Chicago 129.83 1.4% 1.5% 6.6%
Cleveland 106.64 0.4% 1.2% 0.8%
Dallas 140.12 1.1% 1.3% 8.0%
Denver 154.39 1.2% 1.3% 7.7%
Detroit 97.44 1.4% 1.3% 10.3%
Las Vegas 135.12 1.4% 1.1% 15.2%
Los Angeles 223.33 0.6% 1.1% 10.5%
Miami 186.39 0.6% 1.2% 11.5%
Minneapolis 141.27 0.6% 1.3% 6.7%
New York 175.26 1.6% 1.0% 4.3%
Phoenix 146.90 0.6% 0.4% 6.9%
Portland 168.97 1.1% 1.1% 9.2%
San Diego 203.32 0.7% 0.6% 10.2%
San Francisco 195.32 0.3% 1.8% 12.9%
Seattle 169.96 1.1% 1.4% 8.6%
Tampa 161.25 1.2% 1.8% 9.1%
Washington 210.68 0.6% 0.9% 5.3%
Composite-10 187.19 1.0% 1.1% 8.1%
Composite-20 172.33 1.0% 1.2% 8.1%
U.S. National 166.34 0.9% 1.1% 6.2%
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic
Data through June 2014

 

Since its launch in early 2006, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices have published, and the markets have followed and reported on, the non-seasonally adjusted data set used in the headline indices. For analytical purposes, S&P Dow Jones Indices publishes a seasonally adjusted data set covered in the headline indices, as well as for the 17 of 20 markets with tiered price indices and the five condo markets that are tracked.

A summary of the monthly changes using the seasonally adjusted (SA) and non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) data can be found in the table below.

June/May Change (%) May/April Change (%)
Metropolitan Area NSA SA NSA SA
Atlanta 1.0% -1.5% 1.2% -1.0%
Boston 0.5% -1.0% 1.1% -0.5%
Charlotte 0.4% -0.5% 1.4% 0.5%
Chicago 1.4% -1.4% 1.5% -0.7%
Cleveland 0.4% -1.1% 1.2% -0.5%
Dallas 1.1% 0.1% 1.3% 0.1%
Denver 1.2% 0.1% 1.3% 0.1%
Detroit 1.4% -1.6% 1.3% -0.2%
Las Vegas 1.4% 0.8% 1.1% 0.8%
Los Angeles 0.6% -0.1% 1.1% -0.1%
Miami 0.6% 0.1% 1.2% 0.3%
Minneapolis 0.6% -2.3% 1.3% -0.4%
New York 1.6% -0.1% 1.0% -0.2%
Phoenix 0.6% -0.1% 0.4% -0.2%
Portland 1.1% 0.2% 1.1% -0.3%
San Diego 0.7% -0.1% 0.6% -0.1%
San Francisco 0.3% -0.4% 1.8% -0.4%
Seattle 1.1% 0.2% 1.4% -0.3%
Tampa 1.2% 0.1% 1.8% 0.6%
Washington 0.6% -0.4% 0.9% -0.5%
Composite-10 1.0% -0.1% 1.1% -0.2%
Composite-20 1.0% -0.2% 1.2% -0.3%
U.S. National 0.9% -0.1% 1.1% -0.1%
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic
Data through June 2014