Let’s get something straight: This ain’t a dodge—it’s the cold, hard truth. Quicker you accept it, the less likely you are to get taken for a ride by a would be bond market prophet.
Everybody hopes to have an Interest Rate Medium. Problem is, the market’s drunk on predictions. Housing folks, mortgage players, Wall Street gamblers—they all want someone to tell them what’s coming so they can feel better about rolling the dice. But here’s the deal: chasing predictions and shopping rates solely based on quotes is a fool’s errand. If and when we roll a 7 on that market guess, the successful guesser don’t shut up about it. They parade it around like a damn trophy. But when they’re dead wrong (which is most of the time), you never hear a peep. Over time, this builds a BS sense of confidence that’s got zero foundation in reality. Wanna guess what the actual win rate is for predictions in this business? You’ll be lucky to beat a coin flip.
And don’t even get me started on how people twist the meaning of “accurate.” Let’s say you called the 10-Year Treasury dropping from 4% to 3% by year-end. It hits 3% in October, then pops back to 3.5% by December. Were you right? Or what if it hits 3.5% in October, but slides to 3% by January? Still right? Who the hell knows? It’s all spin. And this exact same mess plays out when folks try to “time” mortgage rates.
Here’s where I stop being polite and just say it: Making lock or float decisions based on anyone’s prediction enhances the risk of becoming someone’s sucker.
Now pay attention, because this is the gut punch of truth right here:
The market moves TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS every single day—adjusting positions every damn second—trying to be ahead of the other guy just as much as you are.
Think you found some magic intel? Think again. They saw it too. They already traded it. Your “edge” is dead before it ever lived.
The market is a big ball of emotional liquidity and educated guesses competing for the best guess. Every possible shred of predictive power gets baked into pricing the second it exists. Thinking you can outguess it is like bringing a pocketknife to a gunfight—and the other guy owns the armory. Best I can possibly estimate after 20+ years of staring at the Mortgage Backed security is seeing price action levels baked into the candlestick charts. Even that is broad generalization sprinkled with historical trading benchmarks.
Yes, it’s tempting to believe you’ve got some inside track that makes you better than 50/50. But I’ve tried to make a call enough times tell you: that’s the lie you tell yourself right before the market hands gives you whiplash. Even the so-called experts get burned more than they win. Their ego just keeps them from admitting it.
After enough time and enough bad calls, you’ll see what I see: it’s a coin flip with an expensive wardrobe. Best thing you can do as an investor when it comes to rate movement is talk to a professional who is grounded, not desperate. Leave the cheap quotes and the speculation to the rate clowns. Know the market, Know what makes investing in a property worthwhile, and act based on fact—not dartboard soothsayers who have never seen the cycles in the market much less understand we are creating all new cycles thanks to the trillions in QE that has yet to settle in.
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