Anyone selling you certainty is selling you something else too.
Occasionally I call the market movement correctly based on price action/chart history on the MBS candlestick charts. I don’t have anyone screaming out my name as some market guru, so I am left to myself for any acknowledgment and compliments.
But let’s not get it twisted: It was a good guess. That’s it. I didn’t channel the spirits of the Federal Reserve or whisper to the ghost of Milton Friedman. I just paid attention, made a calculated move, and the market went my way.
The Guru Myth
And that right there is the problem with this industry. People act like there’s some mystical “insider knowledge” floating around—like if you just subscribe to the right newsletter, rub elbows with the right trader, or get copied on the right email chain, you’ll unlock the secrets of the rate universe.
Let me burst that bubble for you: That “secret email” you think no one else has? It’s been read, tweeted, podcast, and traded on spread from hell to breakfast before you even opened your inbox.
And guess what? Even the folks writing that stuff might be completely wrong. Or worse, they might not believe it at all. Some of them are just taking big swings to build a brand, move a position, or sound like a genius when one wild call actually lands.
The rest of their garbage? Forgotten. Swept under the rug like a bad first date.
Confidence Isn’t Accuracy
That’s how this game works: loud voices, flashy charts, bold predictions—and absolutely no accountability. But boy, does it sound smart. That’s why it spreads. People love confidence—even when it’s empty. The name Cramer pop into your head just then? I know it did when I wrote that line.
Here’s where it gets dangerous. If you start to believe someone out there actually knows—really knows—where rates are headed next, you’ve just put yourself in the dumbest position in finance: trusting a guru.
I’ve had folks read my analysis and react like I’m some kind of mortgage market prophet. Makes my stomach turn every time. You start thinking I’ve got a crystal ball. That’s when you start making decisions based on faith instead of facts. And that’s how people get wrecked.
No one—and I mean no one—gets this right all the time. Hell, barely anyone gets it right more than half the time. And if they did, they wouldn’t be on the internet telling you—they’d be filthy rich and off the grid.
Even with 51% accuracy, you’re wrong half the time. Let that sink in.
Preparation Beats Prediction
So, what do I do instead of pretending to be a prophet? I gutflop. I plan. I lay out if/then scenarios based on real-world conditions, not hopium. I don’t “call the market”—I prepare for what the market might do, and I stack my decisions accordingly. That’s the grown-up way to play the game.
Let me hit you with another truth: Even the sharpest traders in the biggest firms are just specialists working their tiny sliver of the market. One guy knows MBS. Another knows Treasurys. Another watches stocks. They’re all siloed. The guy crushing MBS trading doesn’t have a clue what’s happening in oil, labor, or geopolitical risk. That’s not his job.
You know who saw the 2008 housing collapse coming? It wasn’t the bond trader in Manhattan—it was your buddy in Phoenix with three buddies who all just bought second homes on stated income. Street-level knowledge beat Wall Street blinders.
That’s why even the “best” MBS trader can be the worst person to ask about mortgage rate direction. They don’t need to know the full macro picture to do their job—and they often don’t.
And here’s the final kicker: Even if all the major players in the bond market tried to team up and push rates in a certain direction, they probably couldn’t pull it off. The market’s too big. Jamie Dimon made this point in June 2025 when he told the world that 100 trillion a day moves through the world markets. That is waaaay too much noise. Too many moving parts. There is no lever behind the curtain. No puppet master. The Fed’s lever is no bigger than a light switch when it comes to making a definitive influence on the overall market.
So unless you’ve got a personal hedge fund set up that lets you trade derivatives to cover your lock decisions on retail mortgage apps, let me save you some pain:
There are no sages. There are no gurus. There’s only you, your preparation, and how well you understand the ground beneath your feet.
Anyone selling you certainty in this business is either lying, selling something, or trying to make up for how little they know.
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