Think Realty Magazine publishes these trend analyses using Altos Research data to help investors identify changes — and indicators of change — in the market and determine how to take advantage of that information.
What you see is what you passed!
Indianapolis 500 drivers and fighter pilots will tell you that at 200 miles per hour or more, by the time you process and react to what you can see, it will be too late to make a difference in maintaining control of your vehicle or airplane. It is why track spotters and radar helps drivers and flyers see well out beyond what’s in eyeshot.
Real estate data should have the effect of market spotting or radar for an investor, but this is rare since most of it is derived from county recorder office data that is 30 to 90 days after the fact.
Altos Research pulls data from any source it can find to count houses that are available to buy, and not just on the local Multiple Listing Service. Altos’ staff tracks discrete addresses, the asking price and how long a house takes to sell.
Those who demand absolute accuracy as recorded by the county and reported 30, 60 and even 90 days after the house has sold criticize Altos’ data-gathering approach. That is because they confuse reporting, no matter how late, with forecasting forward looking data and trends so a wise investor can find a buying advantage. Both have their place.
We agree with Altos’ approach, as an investor wants first to understand trends and then see detailed property information once an undervalued or moving market is identified. Find the trends then immediately analyze sales data. Altos’ data collection approach allows an investor to look through the windshield and react to what he sees ahead versus navigating via the rearview mirror.
Market Advice – Las Vegas remains a gamble
We use Altos’ offered-for-sale data to watch expanding (slowing) and contracting (accelerating) markets, followed by how long it takes to sell a house (shorter equals better) and at what price (rising equals good).
One number leads to another: rising inventory is inevitably followed by longer periods to sell a house, and a slowing or flattening price increase curve or even reversal of prices.
The April Altos data shows the greater Las Vegas market with three months of continued and measurable deterioration, more houses, a longer time to sell and flat-to-retrenching prices. Las Vegas has been in this cycle for at least three months and worse, in the prime spring sales season.
Greater Boston, Greater New York, Long Island and Hudson County, N.J., and Southern Louisiana are showing a clear trend of deteriorating market conditions over the most recent two months. Other markets appear to be taking a breather month-over-previous month, most likely explained by the end of the spring selling season.
Sunbelt + Workforce freedom = Profits
Inventory in most major markets in the Sunbelt States continues to contract but now, along with a more normal rate of foreclosures, newly built properties are beginning to come to market. Economics and demographics will continue to favor A & B markets across those southernmost states that are bounded by the Atlantic Ocean, Gulf Coast and the southern border from North Carolina to Southern California. Wise investors, from institutional to individual investors, continue to favor these markets. Join them.
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