Almost a quarter of nearly 70 million single-family homes or condos in a recent ATTOM Data Solutions survey were found to have high environmental hazard risk.

ATTOM’s “Environmental Hazards Housing Risk Index,” released Feb. 16, 2017, showed 17.3 million residences are in ZIP codes with high or very high risk for one of four hazards: Superfunds, Brownfields, polluters or poor air quality. The properties represent a combined estimated market value of $4.9 trillion.

The 17.3 million single-family homes and condos in high-risk ZIP codes represented 25 percent of the 68.1 million single-family homes and condos in the 8,642 ZIP codes analyzed. A risk index for each of the four environmental hazards was calculated for each of the 8,642 ZIP codes, and the indexes were each divided into five categories of risk: Very Low, Low, Moderate, High and Very High. See full methodology below.

Of the 8,642 ZIP codes analyzed, 6,238 with 50.8 million single-family homes and condos (75 percent) worth a combined $16.9 trillion did not have a High or Very High risk index for any of the four environmental hazards.

“Home values are higher and long-term home price appreciation is stronger in ZIP codes without a high risk for any of the four environmental hazards analyzed,” said Daren Blomquist, senior vice president at ATTOM Data Solutions. “Corresponding to that is a higher share of homes still seriously underwater in the ZIP codes with a high risk of at least one environmental hazard, indicating those areas have not regained as much of the home value lost during the downturn.

“Conversely, home price appreciation over the past five years was actually stronger in the higher-risk ZIP codes, which could reflect the strong influence of investors during this recent housing recovery,” Blomquist added. “Environmental hazards likely impact owner-occupants more directly than investors, making the latter more willing to purchase in higher-risk areas. The higher share of cash sales we’re seeing in high-risk ZIP codes for environmental hazards also suggests that this is the case.”

Breakdown of Natural Hazard Housing Risk by ZIP

Overall Environmental Hazard Housing Risk

A total environmental hazard index combining the four individual hazard indexes was also calculated for each of the 8,642 ZIP codes nationwide.

ZIP codes with the 10 highest Total Environmental Hazard Index values were in Denver; San Bernardino, California; Curtis Bay, Maryland (in the Baltimore metro area); Santa Fe Springs, California (in the Los Angeles metro area); Fresno, California; Niagara Falls, New York; Saint Louis; Mira Loma, California (in the Riverside-San Bernardino metro area); Hamburg, Pennsylvania (in the Reading metro area); and Tampa, Florida.

Top Ten ZIP Codes for Overall Environmental Hazard Housing Risk

Highest Risk Superfund ZIP Codes, Highest Foreclosure Rates

 The Superfund Risk Index for each ZIP code was based on the number of Superfund sites on the National Priorities List in 2016 as determined by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Similar to the overall risk index, the Superfund Risk Index was divided into five categories of risk, from Very Low to Very High.

Over the last 10 years, median home prices have risen the most in Very Low risk ZIP codes, with the rise in prices lower in each subsequent category of higher risk. Median home prices in Very High risk ZIP codes are down 1.5 percent from 10 years ago.

Homeowners in Very Low risk ZIP codes have seen the biggest percentage gain in home value since purchase (24.4 percent) while homeowners in High risk ZIP codes have seen the smallest percentage gain in home value since purchase (19.6 percent).

Foreclosure rates are highest in Very High risk ZIP codes (1.0 percent), while foreclosure rates in Moderate ZIP codes are lowest (0.5 percent).

Highest-Risk Brownfield ZIP Codes, Highest Underwater

 The Brownfield Risk Index for each ZIP code was based on the number of Brownfield sites in 2016 as defined by the EPA. The index was divided into five categories of risk from Very Low to Very High.

In ZIP codes in the Very High risk category, 17.2 percent of properties were seriously underwater, the highest of any risk category, with the share of underwater homes decreasing with each subsequent risk category lower. In ZIP codes in the Very Low risk category, 8.9 percent of properties were seriously underwater.

Over the last 10 years, median home prices have risen the most in Very Low risk ZIP codes (2.8 percent), while median home prices in Very High risk ZIP codes are still 2.8 percent below 10 years ago, the biggest decrease of any risk category.

Home sellers in 2016 in Very Low risk ZIP codes realized the biggest percentage gain in home price since purchase (25.3 percent), while homeowners in High risk ZIP codes realized the smallest gain (18.6 percent). Homeowners in Very High risk ZIP codes realized an average percent gain since purchase of 18.9 percent.

Lowest-Risk Polluter ZIP Codes, Lowest Underwater Rates

 The Polluters Risk Index for each ZIP code was based on the number of facilities included on the EPA’s Toxic Release Inventory (TRI) list in 2015 (the most recent data available at the time of the analysis). The index was divided into five categories of risk from Very Low to Very High.

Home sellers in 2016 in Very Low risk ZIP codes realized the biggest percentage gain in home price since purchase (27.7percent), with homeowners realizing lower percentage gains in each subsequent risk category higher. Homeowners in Very High risk ZIP codes realized a 16.6 percent average gain in home price since purchase.

In ZIP codes in the Very High risk category for polluters, 12.7 percent of properties were seriously underwater, the highest of any risk category, with the share of underwater homes decreasing with each subsequent risk category lower. ZIP codes in the Very Low risk category, 9.2 percent of properties were seriously underwater.

Highest-Risk Air Quality ZIP Codes

 The Air Quality Risk Index for each ZIP code was based on the percentage of days in 2015 that were deemed to not have good air quality by the EPA, and the index was divided into five categories of risk from Very Low to Very High.

 The Brownfield Risk Index for each ZIP code was based on the number of Brownfield sites in 2016 as defined by the EPA. The index was divided into five categories of risk from Very Low to Very High.

In ZIP codes in the Very High risk category, 17.2 percent of properties were seriously underwater, the highest of any risk category, with the share of underwater homes decreasing with each subsequent risk category lower. In ZIP codes in the Very Low risk category, 8.9 percent of properties were seriously underwater.

Over the last 10 years, median home prices have risen the most in Very Low risk ZIP codes (2.8 percent), while median home prices in Very High risk ZIP codes are still 2.8 percent below 10 years ago, the biggest decrease of any risk category.

Home sellers in 2016 in Very Low risk ZIP codes realized the biggest percentage gain in home price since purchase (25.3 percent), while homeowners in High risk ZIP codes realized the smallest gain (18.6 percent). Homeowners in Very High risk ZIP codes realized an average percent gain since purchase of 18.9 percent.

Lowest-Risk Polluter ZIP Codes, Lowest Underwater Rates

 The Polluters Risk Index for each ZIP code was based on the number of facilities included on the EPA’s Toxic Release Inventory (TRI) list in 2015 (the most recent data available at the time of the analysis). The index was divided into five categories of risk from Very Low to Very High.

Home sellers in 2016 in Very Low risk ZIP codes realized the biggest percentage gain in home price since purchase (27.7percent), with homeowners realizing lower percentage gains in each subsequent risk category higher. Homeowners in Very High risk ZIP codes realized a 16.6 percent average gain in home price since purchase.

In ZIP codes in the Very High risk category for polluters, 12.7 percent of properties were seriously underwater, the highest of any risk category, with the share of underwater homes decreasing with each subsequent risk category lower. ZIP codes in the Very Low risk category, 9.2 percent of properties were seriously underwater.

Highest-Risk Air Quality ZIP Codes

 The Air Quality Risk Index for each ZIP code was based on the percentage of days in 2015 that were deemed to not have good air quality by the EPA, and the index was divided into five categories of risk from Very Low to Very High.

There was only one ZIP code in the Very Low category, so not enough data to be statistically viable nationwide.

Median home prices in Low risk ZIP codes for air quality have risen the most over the past year and past 10 years of any risk categories, with lower price appreciation in each subsequent risk category higher for both one year and 10 years.

Home sales volume has increased 26 percent over the past five years in both Low and Moderate risk categories, while home sales volume has increased just 3.3 percent over the past five years in Very High risk ZIP codes and increased 16.5 percent in High risk ZIP codes.

Click on image to open interactive map. Map will open in separate tab.

 

You can read the full report by clicking here.

 

Environmental Hazard Definitions, Sources and Methodology

 Poor Air Quality: This percentage is derived from the average percentage of days without significant traces of Carbon Monoxide, Fine Particles, Particulate Matter, Nitrogen Dioxide, Ozone, or Sulfur Dioxide in the air as reported by the Environmental Protection Agency. For more details, visit http://www.epa.gov/airquality/cleanair.html.

Superfunds on National Priorities List: is the list of national priorities among the known releases or threatened releases of hazardous substances, pollutants, or contaminants throughout the United States and its territories. The NPL is intended primarily to guide the EPA in determining which sites warrant further investigation. For more details, visit http://www.epa.gov/superfund/sites/npl/.

Brownfield Site: With certain legal exclusions and additions, the term “brownfield site” means real property, the expansion, redevelopment, or reuse of which may be complicated by the presence or potential presence of a hazardous substance, pollutant, or contaminant. For more details, visit http://epa.gov/brownfields/index.html.

Polluters: Data from the Toxic Release Inventory (TRI) Program that requires certain industrial facilities that manufacture or process more than 25,000 pounds of a TRI-listed chemical or otherwise uses more than 10,000 pounds of a listed chemical in a given year to report that to the Environmental Protection Agency. For more details, visit http://www2.epa.gov/toxics-release-inventory-tri-program.

Methodology

For the report, ATTOM Data Solutions analyzed 8,642 U.S. ZIP codes with sufficient housing trend data for the following four environmental hazards: poor air quality, superfund sites, polluters, brownfields and former drug labs.

A housing risk index was calculated for each of the four types of hazards in each of the 8,642 ZIP codes. The maximum index value for each index was 250 and the minimum value was 0.

A combined environmental hazard index comprised of these four factors and with a maximum possible score of 1,000 was assigned to each ZIP code. The highest actual score for any ZIP code was 455. Each individual natural hazard index accounted for 25 percent of the combined index.

About ATTOM Data Solutions

ATTOM Data Solutions, parent company to RealtyTrac, is the curator of the ATTOM Data Warehouse, a multi-sourced national property database that blends property tax, deed, mortgage, foreclosure, environmental risk, natural hazard, health hazards, neighborhood characteristics and other property characteristic data for more than 150 million U.S. residential and commercial properties. The ATTOM Data Warehouse delivers actionable data to businesses, consumers, government agencies, universities, policymakers and the media in multiple ways, including bulk file licenses, APIs and customized reports.

 

 

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